Both Are True

Bets is a personal tracking system for experiments.

What it is: A markdown file where I log tasks that have a defined outcome I’m not sure about.

What makes something a bet vs a task: A task is “do this thing.” A bet is “I think this thing will work, here’s what success looks like, here’s my odds.” Not everything is a bet. Only things with uncertainty worth tracking.

Fields per bet:

• Idea, plan, success criteria (base + reach)
• Odds and difficulty (1-10 gut ratings)
• Time (filled after)
• Result (win/loss/partial + what happened)

Reach success: A second tier. Base success = you shipped it. Reach success = it got traction (e.g. 20+ engagements on a platform).

Current state: One file, no tooling, no database. Add a bet when you start one, fill in results when it resolves.

Bet #1: Channels Essay

• Idea: Write and publish an essay about Claude Code Channels, the OpenClaw revenge arc, and why building your own Claude setup matters
• Success: Published on Substack
• Reach success: 20+ engagements on at least 1 platform (Substack, LinkedIn, or X)
• Plan: Write the draft, publish to Substack, repurpose to LinkedIn (long post + carousel), X (long tweet via Typefully), and botharetrue.com (Hugo blog)
• Odds: 9
• Reach odds: 5
• Difficulty: 3
• Time: ~2 hours (draft + publish + repurpose to 4 platforms)
• Result: WIN (published to all 4 platforms). Reach TBD.

You know those revenge movies where the guy goes and methodically takes out everyone who ever hurt him? That’s sort of what Anthropic’s Claude Code releases have looked like lately. OpenClaw, for anyone who has a life and hasn’t become terminally (pun, intended) addicted by the hype machine of mac minis and AGENTS THAT WORK WHILE YOU SLEEP and A SOCIAL NETWORK FOR LLMS, is essentially a way to connect with an LLM that has access to your stuff and the internet. ...

I find myself longing again for something more like Obsidian. A place that’s first and foremost for my writing, without reply. In Claude Code (and in any chat based AI), the model is call and response. I’ve known that but not realized the power of it since just now. Because the definition of call and response is exactly that: I call. it responds. Always. And that response shapes in powerful ways what comes next. ...

I like to be in opposition to whatever I see. That’s my default state. So whatever AI gave me, I’d do the opposite. Maybe that’s the human thing in me? Like here’s a good exercise: what if Claude had given me that exact thing I ended up writing? I wouldn’t have wanted to write it. It wouldn’t be me because me is a reaction, right?

here it is

I love both the form and content of his work, especially his ‘book’ that he’s publishing one chapter at a time on his site called Agentic Engineering Patterns. I also the fact that he’s been doing this since 2002!! That’s fuckin amazing. 24 years of blogging, all there on his website. Not only is this great for us all, but its great for him, especially in the age of LLMs. He talks about that here in the hoard things you know how to do chapter of the book. ...

sup dude

hello!!!