Bets is a personal tracking system for experiments.
What it is: A markdown file where I log tasks that have a defined outcome I’m not sure about.
What makes something a bet vs a task: A task is “do this thing.” A bet is “I think this thing will work, here’s what success looks like, here’s my odds.” Not everything is a bet. Only things with uncertainty worth tracking.
Fields per bet:
- Idea, plan, success criteria (base + reach)
- Odds and difficulty (1-10 gut ratings)
- Time (filled after)
- Result (win/loss/partial + what happened)
Reach success: A second tier. Base success = you shipped it. Reach success = it got traction (e.g. 20+ engagements on a platform).
Current state: One file, no tooling, no database. Add a bet when you start one, fill in results when it resolves.
Bet #1: Channels Essay
- Idea: Write and publish an essay about Claude Code Channels, the OpenClaw revenge arc, and why building your own Claude setup matters
- Success: Published on Substack
- Reach success: 20+ engagements on at least 1 platform (Substack, LinkedIn, or X)
- Plan: Write the draft, publish to Substack, repurpose to LinkedIn (long post + carousel), X (long tweet via Typefully), and botharetrue.com (Hugo blog)
- Odds: 9
- Reach odds: 5
- Difficulty: 3
- Time: ~2 hours (draft + publish + repurpose to 4 platforms)
- Result: WIN (published to all 4 platforms). Reach TBD.